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POWER OUTLOOK: SUMMER 2013
Issued: July 11, 201318-Month Outlook

Ontario anticipates adequate generation and transmission capability to support system reliability over the next year and a half. By the end of 2014, almost 1,900 megawatts (MW) of solar generation and an estimated 900 MW of demand response from large consumers will be available to support reliability, particularly through the summer months.

Summer peaks are being impacted by consumers cutting back their energy use in response to conservation initiatives, time-of-use rates, market prices and other incentives. Large energy users - such as factories, universities or hospitals - who are eligible for the Global Adjustment Allocation will play a notable role in that drop, reducing their electricity consumption on the hottest days of the summer.

Ontario's power grid is also expected to encounter more frequent instances of surplus baseload generation in the spring and summer seasons of 2013 and 2014. This is due to multiple factors, including lower off-peak demand for electricity, increased nuclear capacity and more renewable generation.

Lambton and Nanticoke coal generating units are expected to be removed from the grid by the end of 2013, ending coal generation in Southern Ontario. Adding to the supply mix are the first of four expanded hydro stations on the Lower Mattagami, expected to come into service by the end of Q2 2014.

DEMAND OUTLOOK - SUMMER 2013

DEMAND FORECAST

Seasonal Normal Weather Peak

23,213 MW

Extreme Weather Peak

25,368 MW

Demand Forecast

The mid-term forecasts contained in the Power Outlooks are determined based on econometric models and weather scenarios. These forecasts are superseded by nearer-term forecasts that are used in the operation of the power grid, and employ similar-day scenarios. Each day's projected peak is posted on the Price and Demand page.

SUPPLY OUTLOOK - SUMMER 2013

AVAILABLE GENERATION DURING SEASONAL PEAK
(week of July 8)

Total Installed Resources

36,359 MW

Outages or other reductions in capacity

5,785 MW

 

Demand Response

549 MW

Total Available Resources

31,122 MW

Matching Supply and Demand

The resource scenario shown above incorporates planned outages that generators have requested in order to perform maintenance on their equipment. Should the IESO determine that there is a potential reliability concern due to a generator outage, the outage co-ordination process allows for the IESO to reject or recall outages. In addition, Ontario has the capability to import electricity.

These supply forecasts are superseded by nearer-term forecasts, that are available 34 days before the day-at-hand.

More information about IESO forecasts is available:
• Demand Forecasts | 18-Month Outlook | Ontario Reliability Outlook
• Security and Adequacy Assessment Report (forecasts for the month ahead)