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Participant News

IESO Reaches Decision on Peak vs. Average Demand Forecast

January 23, 2009

The IESO has decided to continue with the current practice of using a peak demand forecast in pre-dispatch rather than switching to an average demand forecast for non-ramping hours.  In making its decision, the IESO considered stakeholder feedback and the advice it received from the Stakeholder Advisory Committee.

While the decision was a difficult one to make, given the current economic conditions, and the relatively small efficiency gains, the IESO concluded that in the circumstances we should not make the change to use of an average forecast.  With this decision taken, the IESO will continue to work with participants and Stakeholder Advisory Committee members to advance other market evolution initiatives that will produce efficiency gains to the benefit of the province.  A more detailed discussion is published on our website at:  www.ieso.ca/imoweb/pubs/consult/se54/se54-20090122-PeakvsAvg-Decision.pdf

In addressing this matter, we also endorsed a structured approach to decision-making aimed at encouraging a general understanding within the industry as to how we would resolve the tensions that can exist between efficiency improvements and impacts on participants, providing more transparency and predictability of decision making, accelerating the decision making process, and resulting in "better" overall decisions.  Drawing on expert advice in cost-benefit analysis and public policy decision making, four possible decision criteria were identified and presented for consideration to the members of the Stakeholder Advisory Committee (SAC).  All four criteria build on the cost-benefit analysis work, and all are informative.  From the IESO's perspective, those criteria that assist in balancing the impacts on participants are especially helpful in decision-making.

The IESO would like to thank all stakeholders for the valuable input provided in addressing this issue.

 

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